What is the prevalence of dementia around the world along with forecasts for 2030 and 2050?

Oct 20, 2025 3 min read •

senior care Healthy Aging public health

According to Alzheimer's Disease International, a person in the world develops dementia every three seconds. This article explores in detail what is the prevalence of dementia around the world along with forecasts for 2030 and 2050, highlighting the growing global health challenge.

Quick Summary

Over 55 million people were living with dementia globally in 2020, a figure projected to rise dramatically to 78 million by 2030 and 139 million by 2050, with the steepest increases expected in low- and middle-income countries.

Key Points

Projected Increase: Global dementia cases are projected to rise from over 55 million in 2020 to 78 million by 2030 and 139 million by 2050, driven by the aging population.
Regional Disparity: The fastest and most significant increase in dementia prevalence is expected in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where by 2050, over 70% of people with dementia will reside.
Key Risk Factors: Modifiable risk factors like low education, hypertension, physical inactivity, and social isolation contribute significantly to the burden, with up to 40% of cases potentially preventable.
Economic Impact: The global cost of dementia was US$1.3 trillion in 2019 and is forecast to rise substantially, with approximately half of the cost stemming from informal, unpaid care by family members.
Challenge for LMICs: Low- and middle-income countries face immense challenges in providing adequate care, as they bear a larger share of the informal caregiving burden while having less developed formal healthcare systems.
Disproportionate Effect on Women: Women are disproportionately affected by dementia, experiencing higher rates of disability and mortality and providing a majority of informal care hours globally.

The Current Global Burden of Dementia

In 2020, it was estimated that over 55 million people worldwide were living with dementia. This figure from Alzheimer's Disease International (ADI), based on data from the World Health Organization (WHO), highlights the current impact of this condition. Dementia is an umbrella term for various conditions affecting cognitive function, with Alzheimer's disease being the most common form. More than 60% of people with dementia already reside in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Projected Prevalence: 2030 and 2050

The global prevalence of dementia is forecast to accelerate significantly. Projections by ADI and WHO estimate the number of people with dementia will reach 78 million by 2030 and 139 million by 2050. This increase is primarily due to the global aging population, as age is the strongest known risk factor for dementia.

The Rise in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

The majority of this growth is expected in LMICs. By 2050, the proportion of people with dementia in LMICs is projected to rise to 71%. This places a considerable burden on healthcare systems in these regions. The global economic impact is significant, with costs reaching $1.3 trillion in 2019.

Comparison of Global and Regional Dementia Prevalence

Prevalence rates of dementia differ globally due to varying demographics and healthcare access. The burden of disease is accelerating fastest in LMICs, while HICs currently bear a larger share of the economic cost.


Feature	High-Income Countries (HICs)	Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs)
Current Prevalence	High percentage of global cases relative to population.	Over 60% of people with dementia live here.
Projected Growth	Slower projected growth compared to LMICs.	Rapid projected growth.
Economic Burden	Incur 74% of global dementia costs.	Account for a smaller percentage of global costs but bear a higher burden of informal care.
Healthcare Capacity	Greater access to diagnosis and care.	Often limited access to diagnosis and care.

Key Factors Driving Dementia Prevalence

The rising prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of risk factors:

Age: The expanding elderly population is a primary driver.
Social Determinants of Health (SDOH): Factors like healthcare access and education levels play a significant role. Lower education is linked to higher risk.
Modifiable Risk Factors: Approximately 40% of dementia cases may be preventable by addressing factors like hypertension, hearing impairment, smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, diabetes, social isolation, and excessive alcohol consumption.
Environmental Factors: Air pollution and neighborhood characteristics are also linked to increased risk.
Genetic Predisposition: The APOE e4 gene is a known risk factor for Alzheimer's.

The Economic Impact of Dementia Worldwide

Beyond the personal toll, dementia presents a massive economic challenge. In 2019, the global cost was an estimated US$1.3 trillion, projected to rise to US$1.7 trillion by 2030. Approximately 50% of these costs are attributed to informal care by family members. This reliance is particularly pronounced in LMICs.

Global Efforts to Address the Challenge

Organizations like the WHO have developed action plans to improve the lives of those affected. These plans focus on raising awareness, supporting carers, fostering research, and reducing risk. For more information, visit the WHO's dementia page. However, significant gaps in awareness and care remain, particularly in LMICs.

Conclusion

The statistics and forecasts for dementia highlight the urgent need for action. As the global population ages, particularly in LMICs, the number of people living with dementia will continue to rise. Understanding current prevalence, preparing for future projections, and addressing contributing risk factors are crucial for mitigating the impact of this condition. Investment in research, public health policies, and support for affected families is essential.

Frequently Asked Questions

In 2020, there were over 55 million people worldwide living with dementia. This number grows substantially each year, with nearly 10 million new cases diagnosed annually.

The primary driver is the aging global population, as age is the most significant risk factor for dementia. This demographic trend, especially the rapid aging of populations in LMICs, fuels the rising prevalence.

Currently, over 60% of people with dementia live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This proportion is expected to increase further, reaching 71% by 2050. However, high-income countries (HICs) still account for a larger share of the total economic cost.

The global cost of dementia was estimated at US$1.3 trillion in 2019. It is projected to rise to approximately US$1.7 trillion by 2030, with a significant portion of this cost associated with informal caregiving.

Yes, research suggests that addressing modifiable risk factors like physical inactivity, hypertension, social isolation, and lower levels of education could prevent up to 40% of dementia cases.

Informal care, provided by family and friends, accounts for roughly 50% of the global societal costs of dementia. Caregivers often spend significant time providing unpaid care, leading to substantial physical, psychological, and financial strain.

Women are disproportionately affected by dementia, both in terms of prevalence and the caregiving burden. They experience higher rates of disability-adjusted life years and provide a majority of the informal care hours.

References

Medical Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and should not replace professional medical advice. Always consult a qualified healthcare provider regarding personal health decisions.