Understanding the Global and National Trends
The question of whether there are more people over 65 than under 18 has a different answer depending on whether you're looking globally or specifically at developed nations like the United States. While the world's youth population still holds a numerical advantage, the gap is narrowing at an unprecedented pace, and in many advanced economies, the demographic crossover has already occurred or is imminent.
Globally, United Nations projections indicate that the population of people aged 65 and over will surpass the number of children under 18 sometime in the late 2070s. This monumental shift is reshaping societies and economies worldwide. In contrast, the US is on a much faster track. According to recent U.S. Census Bureau estimates, people aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 18 by 2029. Data from June 2025 highlighted that older adults already outnumber children in 11 states and nearly half of the nation's counties. This accelerating trend is driven by a combination of declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy.
The Driving Forces Behind Population Aging
The demographic shift toward an older population is not an accident but the result of two primary, long-term trends: increased longevity and decreased fertility. Advances in medicine, public health, and living standards have led to longer lifespans worldwide. People are living well into their 80s, 90s, and beyond, with a larger portion of their lives spent in retirement. Concurrently, societal and economic changes, such as urbanization, higher education, and access to family planning, have led to sustained declines in birth rates. Fewer babies means smaller successive generations, which fundamentally alters the population's age structure. The large "Baby Boomer" generation moving into retirement has magnified this effect, creating a significant bulge in the older age cohorts relative to younger ones.
Economic and Social Consequences of an Aging Population
The shift in population demographics has far-reaching consequences that ripple through society and the economy.
Fiscal and Economic Strain
- Labor Market Pressure: A smaller working-age population relative to a growing number of retirees puts pressure on the labor force, potentially leading to worker shortages in key sectors, particularly healthcare and caregiving.
- Increased Dependency Ratio: The old-age dependency ratio—the ratio of retirees to working-age individuals—is rising dramatically. This puts greater financial strain on pay-as-you-go systems like Social Security and pensions, as fewer workers support more retirees.
- Higher Healthcare Costs: With age comes an increased prevalence of chronic diseases and a greater need for health services. An aging population translates to higher overall healthcare expenditures, placing a burden on public health systems and individual finances.
Challenges for Communities and Families
- Shifting Social Structures: Traditional family support systems are being tested as more youth migrate to urban centers for work, leaving older relatives in rural areas with fewer informal care resources.
- Caregiving Demand: As the population ages, the demand for formal and informal caregiving services grows. There is a need for expanded community-based services, such as meal delivery and transportation, to help seniors age in place.
- Risk Aversion: Some analysts suggest that societies with older electorates may become more risk-averse, favoring consumption over long-term investment, which could affect economic dynamism.
Projections for the Future and the Role of Policy
Looking ahead, population aging is a trend that is unlikely to reverse course. The projections for the U.S. and the world indicate that a smaller, younger generation will need to support a larger, older one. This makes strategic planning and policy adaptation crucial.
Policies addressing this demographic shift are focusing on:
- Strengthening Social Safety Nets: Governments are exploring ways to reform pension and social security systems to ensure their long-term solvency.
- Boosting Productivity: Investments in technology, skills development, and automation can help increase productivity to offset the shrinking working-age population.
- Promoting Labor Force Participation: Encouraging later retirement and greater participation of older adults in the workforce can mitigate the effects of labor shortages.
- Investing in Health and Longevity: Improving health and well-being across all age groups through a lifespan approach can lead to a healthier, more productive older population, reducing the burden on healthcare systems.
| Feature | United States (Recent) | Global (Recent) |
|---|---|---|
| 65+ vs. <18 Ratio | Rapidly approaching parity; crossover projected nationally by 2029 | Children still outnumber older adults, but the gap is narrowing |
| Key Drivers | Falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy | Declining fertility rates and increasing longevity |
| State of Shift | Already occurred in 11 states and nearly half of counties | Averages vary widely by region, with Europe aging fastest and Africa remaining youngest |
| Economic Impact | Increased pressure on Social Security and healthcare | Growing fiscal burdens and need for welfare state reform |
| Future Outlook | Continued aging trend with significant societal adjustments required | Global crossover of 65+ and <18 populations expected in the late 2070s |
Conclusion: Navigating the Demographic Reality
The answer to the question, "Are there more people over 65 than under 18?" is complex. Globally, the youth still prevail, but not for long. In the United States, the demographic flip is not a future projection but a present reality in many parts of the country, with the national crossover just around the corner. The ramifications of this aging population are significant, touching everything from economic stability and labor markets to social support structures and healthcare. Understanding these trends and proactively addressing the challenges is vital for ensuring a healthy and prosperous future for all generations. For more information on demographics and aging, resources like the U.S. Census Bureau provide detailed data and projections.
