Current Dementia Prevalence and Statistics
Recent studies offer valuable insights into the prevalence of dementia in Brazil, revealing both the current scale of the issue and significant disparities. A 2023 expert consensus (Delphi study) estimated a mean all-cause dementia prevalence of 8.5% among Brazilians aged 60 and above in 2019, which corresponded to approximately 2.46 million people in this age group. This contrasts with the ELSI-Brazil study, a nationally representative sample, which found a general prevalence of 5.8% for dementia among people aged 60 and older. These variations highlight the complexity of estimating prevalence in a large, diverse country, but both point to a substantial number of affected individuals.
Stark Underdiagnosis Rates
One of the most critical findings is the high rate of underdiagnosis. A January 2025 study revealed that more than 80% of older adults (60+) with dementia in Brazil remain undetected. An earlier study in 2023 put the figure at around 77%. This major public health issue means many individuals are not receiving timely treatment or support, placing a heavy burden on families and the healthcare system. The underdiagnosis rate also shows regional variation, being highest in the North (95.6%) and lowest in the Southeast (72.9%).
The Impact of a Rapidly Aging Population
Brazil is facing a demographic shift with its population aging rapidly. As the number of older adults increases, so does the number of dementia cases. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported that individuals aged 60 and over represented 14.7% of the population in 2022, with projections that this will reach 25.5% by 2060. This demographic trend is directly fueling the projected rise in dementia cases.
Future Projections for Dementia in Brazil
The future projections for dementia in Brazil are alarming. One expert consensus study estimates that dementia cases among those aged 60 and above could rise to 8.89 million by 2060. Other projections are similarly stark, with one source suggesting a rise to 5.5 million cases by 2050. This anticipated surge necessitates immediate action and preparedness from health and social systems.
Modifiable Risk Factors for Dementia
Several studies have identified modifiable risk factors that contribute significantly to dementia prevalence in Brazil. One study found that ten preventable risk factors accounted for 50.5% of the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF). A subsequent study with twelve factors put the overall weighted PAF at 48.2%. This suggests that targeted public health strategies focusing on these factors could have a major impact on reducing dementia incidence in the coming decades.
Key modifiable risk factors include:
- Hearing Loss: One of the most robust risk factors, with significant potential for prevention.
- Less Education: A major preventable risk, particularly in poorer regions.
- Hypertension: A key cardiovascular risk factor that is highly prevalent.
- Physical Inactivity: A significant contributor to cognitive decline.
- Obesity: Midlife obesity is a notable risk factor.
- Depression: Higher prevalence found among females.
Regional and Demographic Disparities
Dementia prevalence and risk factors are not uniformly distributed across Brazil. There are significant regional, socioeconomic, and gender-based differences.
Regional Prevalence (among those 60+, based on 2019 expert consensus):
- Northeast: 10.1%
- North: 8.9%
- South: 7.3%
- Central West: Not specified, but generally grouped with poorer regions for risk factors.
Age, Sex, and Education Impact
- Age: Prevalence increases drastically with age. For example, one study notes prevalence rising from 3% in ages 65-69 to 43% in ages 90+.
- Sex: Women (9.1%) have a slightly higher dementia prevalence than men (7.7%).
- Education: Lower educational levels are strongly associated with higher prevalence rates.
Comparison of Risk Factors by Region
| Risk Factor | Rich Regions (South/Southeast) | Poor Regions (North/Northeast/Central West) |
|---|---|---|
| Most Impactful Factor | Hypertension | Less Education |
| Less Education (Weighted PAF) | 7.7% | 9.6% |
| Hypertension (Weighted PAF) | 7.8% | 8.5% |
| Hearing Loss (Weighted PAF) | 6.4% | 8.5% |
| Overall PAF | 49.0% | 54.0% |
Addressing the Challenges and Finding Support
Brazil has recognized the growing burden of dementia and has developed a National Dementia Policy. However, the implementation of this policy faces significant challenges due to a lack of a clear federal enforcement plan and sustainable funding. Addressing this will be critical for tackling high rates of underdiagnosis, ensuring health system readiness, and providing better support for caregivers and patients.
For those seeking support and information, the Brazilian Alzheimer's Association (ABRAz) offers valuable resources and guidance. The organization is a vital resource for patients, families, and caregivers navigating the complexities of dementia care in Brazil.
Conclusion
The prevalence of dementia in Brazil is a significant and escalating public health issue, driven by a rapidly aging population and high rates of underdiagnosis. While the exact figures vary between different studies, all data points to millions of affected individuals and a projected tripling of cases by mid-century. Addressing this crisis requires a multi-faceted approach focusing on targeted public health strategies, improved healthcare infrastructure, and consistent implementation of national policies. By tackling modifiable risk factors like education, hearing loss, and hypertension, and improving support systems for caregivers, Brazil can significantly mitigate the future burden of dementia.
