Global Population Aged 85 and Over: Current Numbers and Projections
The population aged 85 and over, often referred to as the "oldest old," is one of the fastest-growing age groups worldwide. This demographic is experiencing substantial and accelerated growth. The United Nations reported that the global population aged 80 and over was 155 million in 2021, with projections indicating a rise to 459 million by 2050. While not exclusively focused on the 85+ group, these figures demonstrate the increasing trend of extreme longevity. In the United States, the 85-and-older population is expected to more than double from 6.5 million in 2022 to 13.7 million in 2040. Similarly, the number of individuals over 85 in the UK is projected to nearly double within a quarter-century.
This growth is primarily a result of longer life expectancies and declining fertility rates globally. The consequences of this demographic change are far-reaching, impacting public services, healthcare systems, and economic structures. As the population ages, the proportion of younger, working individuals relative to retirees shifts, creating challenges for programs like pensions and healthcare.
Regional Comparisons of the Older Population
The distribution of the oldest old is not uniform across the world. While developed nations have historically had older populations, the most rapid aging is now occurring in less developed countries, which can strain their healthcare and social support systems.
Regional trends for the 85+ demographic:
- United States: The 85-and-older population is concentrated in areas like the upper Midwest, Florida, and New England. Although the Northeast and Midwest have high proportions, states such as Nevada and Texas have shown the largest recent growth rates due to migration.
- United Kingdom: According to 2021 data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in England and Wales, 95.2% of those aged 85 and over lived independently. However, projections suggest the number of people over 85 will double in the next 25 years.
- Globally: As of 2020, approximately 1.9% of the global population was aged 80-99, a notable increase from previous decades. While this percentage may seem small, the absolute number is substantial and has significant implications for future social policy.
Factors Influencing the Growth of the 85+ Population
Several factors contribute to the increasing number of people living to advanced ages. Medical advancements have been crucial, treating conditions that were once fatal and enabling longer, healthier lives. Improved living standards, nutrition, and public health infrastructure also play a role. Additionally, social and cultural changes have influenced demographic trends. Women tend to have longer life expectancies than men across all age groups, a disparity that is more pronounced in the oldest cohorts. This has social implications, including a greater need for elder care and support systems for women.
Comparison of Over 85 Population Growth (2020 Data)
| Statistic | United States | United Kingdom | Global Estimate (80-99) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population (2020) | 6.3 million (85+) | ~1.7 million (85+) | 147 million (80-99) |
| Percentage of population (2020) | 1.9% (85+) | 2.5% (85+) | 1.9% (80-99) |
| 20-Year Projection | Projected to more than double by 2040 | Projected to nearly double by 2043 | Projected to grow significantly by 2050 |
| Key Drivers | Baby boomers aging, immigration, medical advances | Baby boomers aging, increased life expectancy | Increased life expectancy, declining fertility |
Future Implications of an Aging Population
The increasing number of people aged 85 and over presents both significant challenges and opportunities for societies. Economically, governments must address the strain on pension and healthcare systems due to the changing ratio of retirees to working-age individuals. The demand for specialized healthcare and long-term care will also rise.
Socially, the growing oldest-old population impacts family structures and caregiving responsibilities. Many adults are part of a "sandwich generation," caring for both their children and elderly parents. There is a need for innovative solutions in housing, care technology, and community support to enable older adults to maintain independence. Addressing these trends requires proactive planning and investment. While challenging, an aging demographic also brings valuable experience, wisdom, and potential for continued civic engagement.
Conclusion
The population of individuals over 85 years old is growing at a significant pace, primarily due to medical progress and long-term demographic trends. This is a global phenomenon, with distinct regional variations in both developed and developing countries. In the U.S., the 85+ population is projected to more than double by 2040, and the UK faces a similar trajectory. This demographic shift has profound implications for social, economic, and healthcare systems, necessitating strategic future planning. Understanding the scale of this population is essential for developing policies and support systems that ensure a high quality of life for the world's oldest citizens.
Visit the Administration for Community Living website for comprehensive data on older Americans
