How Rare is it to Live Past 106?
Living past the age of 100 is a significant achievement, but surviving past 106 is a milestone reached by only a tiny fraction of the world's population. These individuals, known as semi-supercentenarians (ages 105–109) and supercentenarians (ages 110+), are so scarce that precise, real-time statistics are nearly impossible to maintain. For example, in 2015, Japan—a country with a high prevalence of centenarians—had 61,763 centenarians, but only 3,770 were aged 105-109, and just 146 were 110 or older. This illustrates the dramatic drop-off in population numbers for each successive year of life after 100.
Demographic experts, including those from the Gerontology Research Group (GRG) and LongeviQuest, meticulously track and verify the ages of the oldest living people on an ongoing basis. Based on their research, the global population of supercentenarians (aged 110+) is estimated to be in the range of 300 to 450 people at any one time. The number of people specifically aged over 106 would be higher, though still in the low hundreds, as it includes the entire 107-109 age group in addition to the supercentenarian population.
Challenges in Counting the Oldest-Old
Accurately counting the population aged over 106 is exceptionally difficult for several reasons:
- Poor Historical Records: Birth records from over a century ago are often missing, inaccurate, or non-existent, making independent verification of extreme longevity claims a major hurdle.
- Exaggerated Age Claims: Historically, many claims of extreme old age have been proven false due to exaggeration, flawed documentation, or even identity theft. Strict validation protocols by groups like the GRG help to filter out these inaccuracies.
- Privacy Concerns: Not all families with a supercentenarian wish to participate in validation efforts, meaning some genuine cases of extreme longevity may go unrecorded.
- Small Population Size: The very small size of this demographic makes it statistically volatile and challenging for national census bureaus to track accurately without significant error.
Demographics of the Oldest-Old
Analysis of validated cases reveals consistent patterns in this ultra-rare demographic. For example, extreme longevity is overwhelmingly dominated by females. The gender skew is so pronounced that roughly 90% of validated supercentenarians are women. This gender disparity is also reflected in the broader centenarian population, but becomes even more exaggerated at the extreme limits of the human lifespan. Research also suggests that longevity tends to run in families, indicating a potential genetic component, though environment and lifestyle also play crucial roles.
Comparison: Centenarians vs. Supercentenarians
To understand the rarity of being over 106, it's helpful to compare the broader centenarian population with the much smaller supercentenarian group.
| Feature | Centenarians (Age 100+) | Semi-/Supercentenarians (Age 106+) |
|---|---|---|
| Population Size | Hundreds of thousands globally; projected to reach millions. | Likely only in the hundreds globally at any given time. |
| Prevalence | Fairly rare but increasing. For example, roughly 1 per 10,000 residents in the U.S.. | Exceedingly rare. Roughly 1 per 5 million people in industrialized nations for supercentenarians (110+). |
| Gender Split | Skewed toward women, but less pronounced than in older age groups. | Highly skewed toward women, who make up about 90% of the demographic. |
| Validation | More commonly verified, though errors exist. | Requires extremely rigorous, multi-source verification due to greater risk of error. |
| Health Profile | Often exhibit a 'compression of morbidity,' delaying age-related diseases. | Must have substantially delayed or escaped lethal age-related diseases to survive. |
Global Perspective
The distribution of semi- and supercentenarians is not uniform across the globe, though this is partially influenced by the quality of national record-keeping and verification efforts. Countries with robust historical record-keeping and high public awareness of longevity tracking tend to have more validated cases. For example, the United States, Japan, England, Wales, France, and Italy have historically shown the highest total numbers of validated supercentenarians.
However, this doesn't necessarily mean that more people are living to extreme ages in those countries; it could simply reflect a greater ability to verify claims. Regardless of location, the survival rate drops significantly with each year after 100. A 110-year-old's chance of living to 111 is roughly 50-50, illustrating how improbable living to 113, 114, or 115 becomes.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the number of people aged over 106 is a very small, elusive demographic. While the exact figure is impossible to pinpoint in real-time, estimates suggest it is in the low hundreds worldwide, including the smaller subset of supercentenarians (aged 110+). Accurate counting is hindered by challenges in age verification and the sheer rarity of extreme longevity. Demographers and researchers rely on validation groups to confirm ages, revealing a population predominantly composed of women who have demonstrated a significant delay or escape from common age-related diseases. As global life expectancy continues to rise, the population of centenarians and supercentenarians will likely increase, but living past 106 will remain a remarkable and rare feat. To learn more about the validation process and specific cases, you can consult organizations like the Gerontology Research Group.
References
- Gerontology Research Group (GRG): An international body that meticulously verifies the ages of the world's oldest people using strict criteria.
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research: Conducts studies on population dynamics, including longevity, and has researched trends among supercentenarians.
- New England Centenarian Study (NECS): One of the most well-regarded studies on centenarians, providing insight into the health and characteristics of individuals living to extreme old age.
[Authoritative outbound link]: https://www.bumc.bu.edu/centenarian/
