Which race has the most centenarians and what factors influence longevity?

According to a 2024 analysis by the Pew Research Center, White adults currently comprise the vast majority of Americans in their 100s, accounting for 77% of all centenarians. While this addresses the question of which race has the most centenarians in absolute numbers within the U.S., a deeper look into demographics reveals a more complex picture involving population size, life expectancy, and factors like genetics and lifestyle.

Quick Summary

This article examines which race currently constitutes the largest share of centenarians in the U.S. and explores the nuances behind this statistic. It reviews demographic trends, compares survival probabilities across different racial and ethnic groups, and discusses the environmental, social, and biological factors that influence exceptional longevity.

Key Points

• Absolute Numbers vs. Survival Rates: While White Americans account for the largest share of centenarians in the U.S., other racial and ethnic groups, particularly Asian and Hispanic populations, have higher probabilities of surviving to age 100.

• Shifting Demographics: Projections suggest that the shares of Black and Hispanic adults within the centenarian population will increase significantly by 2054, while the share of White adults will decrease.

• Highest Life Expectancy at Birth: The Asian American population has the highest life expectancy at birth in the U.S., contributing to their strong representation among the oldest-old.

• Black-White Mortality Crossover: Around age 85, a phenomenon known as the mortality crossover occurs, where non-Hispanic Black individuals begin to experience lower death rates than their non-Hispanic White counterparts.

• Influencing Factors: Longevity is influenced by a combination of genetics, lifestyle, environmental conditions, and socioeconomic status, which vary across different racial and ethnic groups.

• COVID-19 Impact: The pandemic disproportionately impacted life expectancy among racial and ethnic minority groups, exacerbating existing disparities, though most have seen a partial recovery since.

Current U.S. centenarian demographics

Recent data shows that White adults currently make up the largest proportion of centenarians in the U.S. in absolute numbers. However, this is partly due to their larger share of the overall population. The centenarian population's racial and ethnic composition is changing, and a complete understanding requires considering comparative survival rates and underlying population sizes.

• White Adults: Represent 77% of U.S. centenarians as of 2024, but this share is projected to decrease.
• Black Adults: Account for 8% of centenarians in 2024, projected to increase to 10% by 2054.
• Asian Adults: Make up 7% of centenarians in 2024, with a projected slight decrease to 5% by 2054 despite having the highest life expectancy at birth.
• Hispanic Adults: Constitute 6% of centenarians in 2024, with a significant projected increase to 11% by 2054.
• Other Groups: Multiracial, American Indian, and Alaska Native, as well as Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander populations, each represent 1% or less of current centenarians.

Survival probabilities to age 100

Examining the probability of reaching age 100 provides a different perspective than simply looking at raw numbers. Studies reveal that some groups have a higher likelihood of surviving to exceptional old age. Based on pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, Hispanic and Asian populations showed the highest probabilities of surviving to age 100 from older ages. Research also notes a "Black-White mortality crossover" around age 85.

Factors influencing exceptional longevity

Reaching 100 is influenced by a combination of genetics, environment, and lifestyle. Genetics plays a significant role, particularly for those living past 110. Social, economic, lifestyle, and health behaviors are also important factors.

Comparison of U.S. Racial and Ethnic Longevity Trends

The table below compares life expectancy and survival trends to age 100 across U.S. racial and ethnic groups, using pre-pandemic data.

Characteristic	Non-Hispanic White	Non-Hispanic Black	Hispanic	Non-Hispanic Asian
Life Expectancy at Birth (2019)	78.8 years	74.8 years	81.9 years	85.6 years
Survival Probability to Age 100 (Relative Pre-COVID)	Lower relative probability	Higher relative probability than White	Highest relative probability	Highest relative probability (2019+)
Mortality Crossover Effect	Not applicable	Occurs around ages 86-88	Not applicable	Not applicable

Future projections and demographic shifts

The centenarian population's racial and ethnic makeup is expected to continue evolving. While White adults will likely remain the largest group in sheer numbers for a period, their proportional representation is projected to decrease, while the Hispanic and Black populations are expected to see their shares increase. These projections emphasize the need to understand health and longevity factors specific to each group and to address health disparities.

Conclusion

Although White adults currently make up the largest number of centenarians in the U.S., other groups, particularly Asian, Hispanic, and Black populations, have shown a greater likelihood of reaching age 100 compared to non-Hispanic White individuals. This is due to a combination of factors including genetics, social, and environmental influences. As demographics change, addressing health disparities is important for supporting longevity across all communities.

One authoritative outbound link:

Pew Research Center analysis on centenarian population

Frequently Asked Questions

Which race has the most centenarians in the United States currently?

As of 2024, White adults constitute the largest percentage of centenarians in the U.S. at 77%, though their proportionate share is projected to decrease in the coming decades.

Which racial or ethnic group has the highest probability of living to 100?

Studies using pre-pandemic data indicate that Asian and Hispanic populations had the highest probability of surviving to age 100 when starting from older ages like 70, 80, and 90.

How will the racial composition of centenarians change in the future?

The racial composition of centenarians is projected to become more diverse. By 2054, the shares of Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black centenarians are expected to increase, while the shares of White and Asian centenarians are expected to decrease.

What is the 'Black-White mortality crossover'?

The 'Black-White mortality crossover' is a demographic phenomenon where the mortality rate for non-Hispanic Black individuals becomes lower than that of non-Hispanic White individuals around age 85, continuing into older ages.

Are genetics or lifestyle more important for becoming a centenarian?

Both genetics and lifestyle play a significant role. Genetic factors become more important for individuals living beyond 100, while getting to 90 is often more influenced by health behaviors and environment.

How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect longevity for different racial groups?

The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing racial health disparities, leading to a more significant drop in life expectancy for Black, Hispanic, and American Indian/Alaska Native populations compared to White and Asian populations.

Do centenarians have a lower rate of disease than other older people?

Yes, many centenarians exhibit a delayed onset of age-related diseases. Studies show that a significant portion either 'escaped' age-related diseases entirely or delayed their onset until very late in life.